Table only includes candidates who have met FiveThirtyEight’s “major” candidate criteria. Polls qualification is based on surveys that appear to meet the Republican National Committee’s requirements ...
Sometimes statistical analysis is tricky, and sometimes a finding just jumps off the page. Here’s one example of the latter.
But trying to distinguish the effects of only one type of restriction, like voter ID requirements, is challenging because a new election law rarely changes only one voting provision. “The actual ...
I’m not that impressed by long-term projections of Democratic doom in the Senate. Mostly that’s because I’m not that impressed by long-term political projections in general. Political coalitions ...
Since Donald Trump effectively wrapped up the Republican nomination this month, I’ve seen a lot of critical self-assessments from empirically minded journalists — FiveThirtyEight included, twice over ...
At FiveThirtyEight, we’ve been running NBA predictions since 2015. We started with Elo ratings before introducing our CARMELO player projection system, which we then incorporated into our “CARM-Elo” ...
If you’re one of the approximately 320 million Americans who don’t live in New York City, it might seem like its Democratic mayoral primary has gotten an outsized amount of media coverage. But even I, ...
Odds may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding and third-party candidates. CORRECTION (Aug. 17, 2018, 5:45 p.m.): The first name of Rep. Mark Pocan of Wisconsin was misspelled in an earlier version ...
Longtime readers of FiveThirtyEight are probably familiar with our pollster ratings: letter grades that we assign to pollsters based on their historical accuracy and transparency. Since 2008, we have ...
When the new Congress comes into session in January, there will be more Black Republicans serving together on Capitol Hill than at any point since 1877. The number? Five. 1 For years, Republicans have ...
The fight for D.C. statehood is hardly new. It’s been decades since Congress first introduced legislation to make Washington, D.C., a state, and 27 years since such a bill got a full (losing) vote in ...
In 1998, Bill Johnson traveled from his home in Rochester, New York, to Richmond, Virginia, to see his father, who was dying of congestive heart failure. At his bedside one morning, Johnson read a ...
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