Seeking Alpha

Is A 90% Probability Strategy A Holy Grail?

Are 90% probability strategies a Holy Grail? High Probability or High Risk/Reward? A 90% winning ratio can still lose money. A lot of options traders consider a 90% probability strategy a Holy Grail ...
T&D

Risk Equals Probability Times Consequences

An OIP bushing failure on the 400-kV, 100-MVAR reactor caused this reactor fire. A large percentage of the power transformers in commission contain large quantities of mineral oil. While the ...
Scientific American

Probability Probably Doesn’t Exist

Life is uncertain. None of us know what is going to happen. We know little of what has happened in the past or is happening now outside our immediate experience. Uncertainty has been called the ...
Investopedia

Understanding Subjective Probability: Definitions and Examples

Adam Hayes, Ph.D., CFA, is a financial writer with 15+ years Wall Street experience as a derivatives trader. Besides his extensive derivative trading expertise, Adam is an expert in economics and ...
Scientific American

What is Bayes's theorem, and how can it be used to assign probabilities to questions such as the existence of God? What scientific value does it have?

Chris Wiggins, an associate professor of applied mathematics at Columbia University, offers this explanation. A patient goes to see a doctor. The doctor performs a test with 99 percent ...
Investopedia

Probability Distribution: Definition, Types, and Uses in Investing

Adam Hayes, Ph.D., CFA, is a financial writer with 15+ years Wall Street experience as a derivatives trader. Besides his extensive derivative trading expertise, Adam is an expert in economics and ...