The probability that the National Bureau of Economic Research will someday determine a national recession began in the U.S. between December 2025 and December 2026 has fallen below twenty percent.

Economists have also lowered their recession probability scores, although that has done little to dull many recession indicators. Goldman Sachs economists cut their probability of a recession over the ...

Real economic growth in the United States contracted 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025. Although that's an initial estimate, that's a remarkable development because it comes in the middle of a period ...

Concerns over the impact of tariffs have prompted investors and consumers to lower their expectations for the U.S. economy.

There are certain words you don’t want to hear in a medical checkup or in an investment bank’s recession outlook: “stable but elevated.” It’s a phrase that could refer to blood pressure, even risk of ...

(Reuters) -Goldman Sachs on Thursday trimmed its U.S. recession probability to 30% from 35% for the next twelve months on easing uncertainty around President Donald Trump's tariff policies after the U ...

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) defines a recession as a “significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months.” Three criteria – ...

Recession indicators are everywhere, but will they all amount to a hill of beans? Americans are on the lookout for signs of a recession. The signs have been with us, depending on whom you ask, pretty ...